Saturday, 12 July 2014

Why I'm a swithering yes voter

I accidentally spoke at a Yestival event yesterday. I say accidental, I agreed to the gig invite, which I was honoured to accept as it sounded very interesting, without fully looking into the background. It was good, but I felt a little bit of a fraud as I’ve not explicitly “come out” as to which way I’m going to vote on 18 September. Partly this is because I think it’s no one’s business, and partly it’s because the tenor of the debate means I was likely to be called “UNIONIST SCUM” or “EVIL CYBERNAT” depending on which way I swithered. But the Yestival speaking event and a few other things (ahem) have made me think I should nail my colours to the mast. Well, I say nail; more pin with rusting drawing pins in hurricane force winds…

So, yes, at the moment Better Together have the unique accolade of being the only political campaign to ever actively lose my support. I even still vote Labour (I’ll come onto that below). I have never voted SNP; they’ve not even had any of my lower preferences in the STV elections in local government. In opinion poll question style, if the referendum was tomorrow I’d vote yes. Back in 2011 when the SNP won their surprising majority at Holyrood I was a no voter with inclinations to a yes. I thought that in a neoliberal, globalised world, independence would offer Scotland few extra powers or abilities and in fact could leave us more vulnerable. Basically I was just waiting for the no campaign to present their argument to reassure me of their views. But they have utterly failed to do this. To structure this post I’ll go through some of the big issues in turn.

But what about the pound and Euro membership?

Better Together lost this argument as soon as David Cameron started to be a full-on posh nob with EU policy and promised a referendum in 2017. As far as I’m concerned, there is now more risk of Scotland leaving the EU if it stayed part of the UK then if it went separate. Of course Spain and other countries with internal independence struggles are going to question Scotland’s membership, but Scotland’s law at the moment is very closely aligned to EU legislation. In fact, because the UK follows EU Directives ridiculously slavishly, we’re probably more aligned than other countries. I cannot see why there would be impediments to Scotland being a member of the EU, even if it was a process that took a few years via EEA membership. We might lose the rebate, but hey, we’d be losing something that I’m frankly embarrassed about and reflects firstly the grand-standing of Margaret Thatcher and Eurosceptic loons in the Tory party, and secondly the utter failure of the EU to properly reform the Common Agricultural Policy.

And as for the currency. This reflects a wider problem I have with the whole referendum which I will discuss below. For all the Euro’s problems, if the independence White Paper had actually gone for Euro membership then I would have been a firm yes voter. I think keeping the pound is actually slightly daft as it does leave most of the economic levers of a modern capitalist country in the hands of the Bank of England. I think it would have been fun to say we’d have our own currency – an ‘Eck divided into 100 Sturgeons perhaps? It would tank on global currency markets on independence day, sending Scottish exports shooting up, then everyone would realise it was a petro-currency and it’s value would soar and we’d be plunged into a brief sharp recession, and then things would balance out.

I also think it’s a bit daft to presume that the UK will keep the Pound for eternity. I recall the debates about Euro membership back in the late 90s and the CBI and other business organisations being strongly in favour of membership versus a horrifically Eurosceptic Tory party. My dad made the point that if the Tories had won the 2001 election they probably would have been forced by the business interests that back them to introduce the Euro by the back door – peg the pound at 1-1 against the Euro and call it the “EuroPound” just like Ted Heath had “stopped” decimalisation by keeping the sixpence coin. Given the UK is one of the greatest supporters of the TTIP I think it’s as likely that we’ll end up with the US Dollar as our currency if we stay in the UK.

But won’t big business move away?

Every now and then there’s a scare story that one of the major “Scottish” businesses will move if we’re independent. Then the Yes campaign find a business person who supports independence. It’s a pretty facile tit-for-tat. But ultimately, for me, large businesses with growing profits are going to be inherently conservative. Any change to market conditions is something they will worry about as it could erode the profitability of capital. It’s why big businesses campaign against things like weekends, annual leave, flexible working, equal pay, health and safety not killing your workers on a regular basis. Sorry, I’m a socialist, so big business can go and fuck itself up it’s ear with a Donkey’s nob. Excuse my French. Capital in a modern world is flighty. This argument also misses the fact that Scotland still massively suffers from branch-plant syndrome, with very few businesses actually headquarted and registered here. They can bugger off elsewhere in the world whenever they want.

We also have absolutely no idea of what the economic policies of a post-independence government might be. If the SNP were to form that government, then it looks like it will be hell-for-leather, deregulated, low taxed neoliberalism. I’d be fighting against this with every political bone in my body. I suspect the Chief Executives of quite a few global companies would support them quite handsomely.

One argument Better Together could use is a fear I have – that an economy as small as Scotland’s could become far too corporatised like the economy of Denmark, which is dominated by Maersk shipping, Arla dairies and pig farmers. I’d be extremely concerned if we ended up with an economy dominated by oil companies, banks, Scottish and Southern Energy and A.G. Barr.  Free Irn Bru and Tunnocks teacakes in an independent Scotland!

You do know Scotland won’t be a socialist utopia

No shit, Sherlock. One of the things that angered me most about the independence white paper when it came out was many of the headlines from it, such as the expansion of childcare, were actually a manifesto for an SNP government. We have no idea what the political complexion of the government of an independent Scotland could be.

There’s a tired joke that there are more pandas in Scotland than there are Tory MPs. This ignores how awful the electoral system for Westminster is, and also the Tories reasonable levels of representation in the Scottish Parliament and across local councils. And I might be a diehard socialist, but the one thing that concerns me about Scottish politics, particularly since 2007, is the fact that we have a government and opposition that are both largely of the centre-left. There is a vast constituency of natural Tory voters in Scotland who are disenfranchised by geography (they’re disparate) and the shame that is attached to the party in here. It’s why I wished Murdo Fraser had won his bid to become Scottish Conservative leader with his plans to separate and rebrand the party, in the manner of the old Ratepayer’s Parties and Progressive Unionists of days of yore.

So, I’d welcome a strong, new conservative party in an independent Scotland as every representative democracy needs a health, pluralistic opposition.

But an independent Scottish Government would be broke!

Well, that depends. It depends on how you cut up the tax and expenditure figures currently produced by the UK Government. As the referendum debate has demonstrated, these numbers are basically the financial equivalent of a Choose-Your-Own-Adventure; they’ll tell you want you want them to tell you. It also depends on how much of the UK debt an independent Scotland takes on, and it’s currency – both complete unknowns at the moment (Better Together won’t give us a definitive, sensible answer on either, despite the scare tactics of the Osborne-Balls-Alexander unholy triumvirate). It also depends on the tax and expenditure policies of an independent Scotland. Again, we don’t know what the political complexion of an independent Scottish government will be, so we might as well just be pissing into the wind.

But an independent Scotland could never have bailed out the banks!

Yeah, because that’s worked out so well for the UK. Socialising risk and cost and privatising profit. Go UK.

And you do know that the sun won't always shine in an independent Scotland?

Oh, but in the Independent Eckdom of Caledonia the sun will always shine! Sorry, I'll start being more serious now.

But what about the north of England?

Right, we’re moving away from the #projectfear nonsense arguments now, and onto ones that actually don’t just anger me in their pointlessness. I do worry that I’d leave my socialist parents in the north of England, and fellow left-wing northerners in a perpetual Tory state. Just like they’ve left us in a perpetual SNP state, I suppose. What I’d actually hope is that Scotland going independent might be a bit of a wake-up call to the UK that the status quo at Westminster cannot remain.  Parliamentary politics at Westminster is entirely broken and needs vast reform. Maybe independence for Scotland would bring about a drive for that sort of change to happen in England?

But what about solidarity with the workers?

Right, I’m going to stop being utterly facetious and try and be serious about this one, as it’s the best argument I’ve heard. Gordon Brown did one take on it, with the idea of a British mission, including some great institutions as the NHS, which Scotland should continue to be part of. It’s been covered better by @how_upsetting and Socialism First. I could completely buy into the argument if…A big if. I think the people who share this view would disagree with this, but it does seem based on the assumption that the current constitutional settlement in the UK can either accept radical change to allow socialist solidarity to flourish in the UK.

And I just cannot see that happening. As far as I’m concerned the non-constitution of Westminster is completely broken. It’s completely unrepresentative, the fact we still have the House of Lords is a farce and this week’s events around civil liberties infringements really show it up to be the corrupt, venal place that it is. And the Gordon Brown line of argument also stems from a bizarre argument from the left, that I heard most often from Tony Benn and Betty Boothroyd, that because the Commons is elected “democratically” (to be incredibly unrepresentative of the views of the electorate) it is somehow sacrosanct and above criticism.
I want international solidarity for socialism to continue; but I see the UK as hindering this not helping it and I cannot foresee it being stopped by Scotland becoming independent.

So why are you swithering to voting yes?

Well, yes, you might be wondering that; I’ve not exactly convinced myself with my list of might-bes. Basically it’s the constitution question. I’m a republican socialist. Ever since I first learnt about the French Revolution age 17 I’ve also been a constitutionalist. Every time we have yet more obsequious fawning over the royal family on TV and I’m referred to as a “commoner” I just want to hurl bricks at the TV. The UK constitution is a joke (do read the pdf behind that link, it’s superb). So when the Scottish Government produce a document which states in section two “In Scotland, the people are sovereign.” my heart swells with the giddy excitement I had as a na├»ve 17-year-old wearing red socks to be rebellious.

Yes, we don’t know what the constitution of an independent Scotland would look like. We cannot presume it will be socially, economically radical. We can’t presume it will not be weak and changed continually. But we will have a constitution. We will have a basic document that asserts the sovereignty of the people, protects human rights and enshrines subsidiarity for tiers of government and governance for the country. It will defines the powers, and the limits of powers, of the executive, legislature, judiciary, and the sodding leeching royalty we’ll be left with. We will not have the utter mess of Westminster. Institutions of government do not create politics – the US constitution is an amazing model of radical constitutionalism, and it’s politics is utterly broken. But, when I go to constitutional democracies elsewhere, you just get that sense from speaking to them that their constitution makes them the better country they are.

And, as the Guardian have commented on the most brilliant thing about this time in Scotland is the vast number of conversations happening all the time about politics and really big existential things. They’re happening in pubs, in meetings, in general polite conversation. People are asking really big questions about the nature of politics and power and having really good debates about it. And for that reason, if we do vote yes on 18 September, I really think that the process of constitution building will be exciting, interesting and inclusive.

Postscript

The debate between the official Yes campaign and Better Together/No Thanks has been utterly appalling, however. In fact the thing that annoys me most is how awful the whole campaign has been. As all the “what ifs” and “buts” in this post make clear, we are voting for nothing. If we vote yes, we actually have absolutely no idea what we’ll be getting. If we vote no, we have absolutely no idea what we will be getting. This point was made by the Electoral Commission back in 2012. To be fair on them, the Scottish Government did then produce their White Paper. However, as I’ve already stated, much of this contained policies that might be possible in an independent Scotland. And the response of Project Fear was “naa naa na naa naa. We’re not playing so we’re going to sulk with our bat and ball”. If the two sides had actually sat down and come to an agreement – just a loose agreement – in advance, then at least we’d have some idea what we were voting for. There’s absolutely no point in debating further many of the points in the blog post because we just don’t know.

This is why, for me, it just comes down to the constitutional question. No one can pretend that independence = radical constitution = socialism and the end of capitalism in Scotland. But a constitution can allow us to elect governments at all levels to make decisions for us. Westminster, and Project Fear and their devomax alternatives, are not offering me this.

And I just want to end with a comment on Project Fear. It has been a woefully run campaign. Whenever they make an announcement, like the one on the currency, they immediately have to back-track when it’s pointed out to them the flaws in their argument, or when people in the campaign brief against them. It strikes me they were very complacent and just thought “all we have to do is frighten people to death and they’ll accept the status quo”. But the yes campaign cannot help but be filled with positivity and nice, so that really isn’t working, still. And No Thanks need to get their grassroots sorted. Back in 2012 Yes and Better Together took it turns each Saturday morning to leaflet the Foot of Leith Walk. Labour No Thanks were at the Foot of the Walk last week, which is the first time I’d seen anyone pro-union there in a year. Yes have been there every week, very enthusiastic, smiling, engaging people in debate and thrusting leaflets into people’s hands. A Better Together leaflet sent through the post by the UK Government with photos of terrified looking families is not going to make me vote no. It just makes me think “fuck off David Cameron you tit”. No Thanks/Better Together need that grassroots personal touch to get a positive message out there and win hearts.

And I won’t go into the possibly illegal spamming of academics email accounts by Academics Together/Blether Together (see the Twitter thread attached to this tweet). That’s one of the reasons I’m writing this.


In conclusion, at the moment I’m swithering to yes. Better Together are offering THE FEAR and pretty much nothing else of substance that makes me want to vote no. I’m not going to rush out and join Academics for Yes, but I have considered this (the fact that Academics for Yes contains people of a variety of ages and TWO WHOLE genders means they automatically beat Academics Together). It might be that in the polling booth on 18 September I get cold feet and vote no; it is a very big step. But right now it’s an exciting step I want to see happen. 

2 comments:

  1. Can I ask why you still vote labour? , you said you would come back to it in your post but never did. It's something I truly can't understand, and I would really appreciate hearing why.

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  2. Oops. Sorry. Lost myself in the argument. I vote Labour because it runs through me like a stick of Blackpool rock. It's just something I do. I'm also lucky to have excellent Labour representatives locally that I'd probably vote for no matter what their political colour. In PR elections other parties do get my other preferences where possible.

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