I accidentally spoke at a Yestival event yesterday. I
say accidental, I agreed to the gig invite, which I was honoured to accept as
it sounded very interesting, without fully looking into the background. It was
good, but I felt a little bit of a fraud as I’ve not explicitly “come out” as to
which way I’m going to vote on 18 September. Partly this is because I think it’s
no one’s business, and partly it’s because the tenor of the debate means I was
likely to be called “UNIONIST SCUM” or “EVIL CYBERNAT” depending on which way I
swithered. But the Yestival speaking event and a few other things (ahem)
have made me think I should nail my colours to the mast. Well, I say nail; more
pin with rusting drawing pins in hurricane force winds…
So, yes, at the moment Better Together have the unique
accolade of being the only political campaign to ever actively lose my support.
I even still vote Labour (I’ll come onto that below). I have never voted SNP;
they’ve not even had any of my lower preferences in the STV elections in local
government. In opinion poll question style, if the referendum was tomorrow I’d
vote yes. Back in 2011 when the SNP won their surprising majority at Holyrood I
was a no voter with inclinations to a yes. I thought that in a neoliberal,
globalised world, independence would offer Scotland few extra powers or
abilities and in fact could leave us more vulnerable. Basically I was just
waiting for the no campaign to present their argument to reassure me of their
views. But they have utterly failed to do this. To structure this post I’ll go
through some of the big issues in turn.
But what about the pound and Euro membership?
Better Together lost this argument as soon as David Cameron
started to be a full-on posh nob with EU policy and promised a referendum in
2017. As far as I’m concerned, there is now more risk of Scotland leaving the
EU if it stayed part of the UK then if it went separate. Of course Spain and
other countries with internal independence struggles are going to question
Scotland’s membership, but Scotland’s law at the moment is very closely aligned
to EU legislation. In fact, because the UK follows EU Directives ridiculously
slavishly, we’re probably more aligned than other countries. I cannot see why
there would be impediments to Scotland being a member of the EU, even if it was
a process that took a few years via EEA membership. We might lose the rebate,
but hey, we’d be losing something that I’m frankly embarrassed about and
reflects firstly the grand-standing of Margaret Thatcher and Eurosceptic loons
in the Tory party, and secondly the utter failure of the EU to properly reform the
Common Agricultural Policy.
And as for the currency. This reflects a wider problem I
have with the whole referendum which I will discuss below. For all the Euro’s
problems, if the independence White Paper had actually gone for Euro membership
then I would have been a firm yes voter. I think keeping the pound is actually
slightly daft as it does leave most of the economic levers of a modern
capitalist country in the hands of the Bank of England. I think it would have
been fun to say we’d have our own currency – an ‘Eck divided into 100 Sturgeons
perhaps? It would tank on global currency markets on independence day, sending
Scottish exports shooting up, then everyone would realise it was a
petro-currency and it’s value would soar and we’d be plunged into a brief sharp
recession, and then things would balance out.
I also think it’s a bit daft to presume that the UK will
keep the Pound for eternity. I recall the debates about Euro membership back in
the late 90s and the CBI and other business organisations being strongly in
favour of membership versus a horrifically Eurosceptic Tory party. My dad made
the point that if the Tories had won the 2001 election they probably would have
been forced by the business interests that back them to introduce the Euro by
the back door – peg the pound at 1-1 against the Euro and call it the “EuroPound”
just like Ted Heath had “stopped” decimalisation by keeping the sixpence coin.
Given the UK is one of the greatest supporters of the TTIP
I think it’s as likely that we’ll end up with the US Dollar as our currency if
we stay in the UK.
But won’t big business move away?
Every now and then there’s a scare story that one of the
major “Scottish” businesses will move if we’re independent. Then the Yes campaign
find a business person who supports independence. It’s a pretty facile
tit-for-tat. But ultimately, for me, large businesses with growing profits are
going to be inherently conservative. Any change to market conditions is
something they will worry about as it could erode the profitability of capital.
It’s why big businesses campaign against things like weekends, annual leave,
flexible working, equal pay, health and safety not killing your workers
on a regular basis. Sorry, I’m a socialist, so big business can go and fuck
itself up it’s ear with a Donkey’s nob. Excuse my French. Capital in a modern
world is flighty. This argument also misses the fact that Scotland still
massively suffers from branch-plant syndrome, with very few businesses actually
headquarted and registered here. They can bugger off elsewhere in the world
whenever they want.
We also have absolutely no idea of what the economic policies
of a post-independence government might be. If the SNP were to form that
government, then it looks like it will be hell-for-leather, deregulated, low
taxed neoliberalism. I’d be fighting against this with every political bone in
my body. I suspect the Chief Executives of quite a few global companies would
support them quite handsomely.
One argument Better Together could use is a fear I have –
that an economy as small as Scotland’s could become far too corporatised like
the economy of Denmark, which is dominated by Maersk shipping, Arla dairies and
pig farmers. I’d be extremely concerned if we ended up with an economy
dominated by oil companies, banks, Scottish and Southern Energy and A.G. Barr. Free Irn Bru and Tunnocks teacakes in an
independent Scotland!
You do know Scotland won’t be a socialist utopia
No shit, Sherlock. One of the things that angered me most
about the independence white paper when it came out was many of the headlines
from it, such as the expansion of childcare, were actually a manifesto for an
SNP government. We have no idea what the political complexion of the government
of an independent Scotland could be.
There’s a tired joke that there are more pandas in Scotland
than there are Tory MPs. This ignores how awful the electoral system for
Westminster is, and also the Tories reasonable levels of representation in the
Scottish Parliament and across local councils. And I might be a diehard
socialist, but the one thing that concerns me about Scottish politics,
particularly since 2007, is the fact that we have a government and opposition that
are both largely of the centre-left. There is a vast constituency of natural
Tory voters in Scotland who are disenfranchised by geography (they’re disparate)
and the shame that is attached to the party in here. It’s why I wished Murdo
Fraser had won his bid to become Scottish Conservative leader with his plans to separate and rebrand
the party, in the manner of the old Ratepayer’s Parties and Progressive Unionists
of days of yore.
So, I’d welcome a strong, new conservative party in an
independent Scotland as every representative democracy needs a health,
pluralistic opposition.
But an independent Scottish Government would be broke!
Well, that depends. It depends on how you cut up the tax and
expenditure figures currently produced by the UK Government. As the referendum
debate has demonstrated, these numbers are basically the financial equivalent
of a Choose-Your-Own-Adventure; they’ll tell you want you want them to tell you.
It also depends on how much of the UK debt an independent Scotland takes on,
and it’s currency – both complete unknowns at the moment (Better Together won’t
give us a definitive, sensible answer on either, despite the scare tactics of
the Osborne-Balls-Alexander unholy triumvirate). It also depends on the tax and
expenditure policies of an independent Scotland. Again, we don’t know what the
political complexion of an independent Scottish government will be, so we might
as well just be pissing into the wind.
But an independent Scotland could never have bailed out the banks!
Yeah, because that’s worked out so well for the UK.
Socialising risk and cost and privatising profit. Go UK.
And you do know that the sun won't always shine in an independent Scotland?
Oh, but in the Independent Eckdom of Caledonia the sun will always shine! Sorry, I'll start being more serious now.
But what about the north of England?
Right, we’re moving away from the #projectfear nonsense
arguments now, and onto ones that actually don’t just anger me in their
pointlessness. I do worry that I’d leave my socialist parents in the north of
England, and fellow left-wing northerners in a perpetual Tory state. Just like
they’ve left us in a perpetual SNP state, I suppose. What I’d actually hope is
that Scotland going independent might be a bit of a wake-up call to the UK that
the status quo at Westminster cannot remain. Parliamentary politics at Westminster is
entirely broken and needs vast reform. Maybe independence for Scotland would
bring about a drive for that sort of change to happen in England?
But what about solidarity with the workers?
Right, I’m going to stop being utterly facetious and try and
be serious about this one, as it’s the best argument I’ve heard. Gordon
Brown did one take on it, with the idea of a British mission, including
some great institutions as the NHS, which Scotland should continue to be part
of. It’s been covered better by @how_upsetting
and Socialism
First. I could completely buy into the argument if…A big if. I think the
people who share this view would disagree with this, but it does seem based on
the assumption that the current constitutional settlement in the UK can either
accept radical change to allow socialist solidarity to flourish in the UK.
And I just cannot see that happening. As far as I’m
concerned the non-constitution of Westminster is completely broken. It’s
completely unrepresentative, the fact we still have the House of Lords is a
farce and this week’s events around civil liberties infringements really show
it up to be the corrupt, venal place that it is. And the Gordon Brown line of
argument also stems from a bizarre argument from the left, that I heard most
often from Tony Benn and Betty Boothroyd, that because the Commons is elected “democratically”
(to be incredibly unrepresentative of the views of the electorate) it is
somehow sacrosanct and above criticism.
I want international solidarity for socialism to continue;
but I see the UK as hindering this not helping it and I cannot foresee it being
stopped by Scotland becoming independent.
So why are you swithering to voting yes?
Well, yes, you might be wondering that; I’ve not exactly
convinced myself with my list of might-bes. Basically it’s the constitution
question. I’m a republican socialist. Ever since I first learnt about the
French Revolution age 17 I’ve also been a constitutionalist. Every time we have
yet more obsequious fawning over the royal family on TV and I’m referred to as
a “commoner” I just want to hurl bricks at the TV. The UK constitution is a joke
(do read the pdf behind that link, it’s superb). So when the Scottish
Government produce a document which states in section two “In Scotland, the
people are sovereign.” my heart swells with the giddy excitement I had as a naïve
17-year-old wearing red socks to be rebellious.
Yes, we don’t know what the constitution of an independent
Scotland would look like. We cannot presume it will be socially, economically
radical. We can’t presume it will not be weak and changed continually. But we
will have a constitution. We will have a basic document that asserts the
sovereignty of the people, protects human rights and enshrines subsidiarity for
tiers of government and governance for the country. It will defines the powers,
and the limits of powers, of the executive, legislature, judiciary, and the
sodding leeching royalty we’ll be left with. We will not have the utter mess of
Westminster. Institutions of government do not create politics – the US
constitution is an amazing model of radical constitutionalism, and it’s
politics is utterly broken. But, when I go to constitutional democracies
elsewhere, you just get that sense from speaking to them that their
constitution makes them the better country they are.
And, as the
Guardian have commented on the most brilliant thing about this time in
Scotland is the vast number of conversations happening all the time about
politics and really big existential things. They’re happening in pubs, in
meetings, in general polite conversation. People are asking really big
questions about the nature of politics and power and having really good debates
about it. And for that reason, if we do vote yes on 18 September, I really
think that the process of constitution building will be exciting, interesting
and inclusive.
Postscript
The debate between the official Yes campaign and Better
Together/No Thanks has been utterly appalling, however. In fact the thing that
annoys me most is how awful the whole campaign has been. As all the “what ifs”
and “buts” in this post make clear, we are voting for nothing. If we vote yes,
we actually have absolutely no idea what we’ll be getting. If we vote no, we
have absolutely no idea what we will be getting. This point was made by the Electoral
Commission back in 2012. To be fair on them, the Scottish Government did
then produce their White Paper. However, as I’ve already stated, much of this
contained policies that might be possible in an independent Scotland. And the
response of Project Fear was “naa naa na naa naa. We’re not playing so we’re
going to sulk with our bat and ball”. If the two sides had actually sat down
and come to an agreement – just a loose agreement – in advance, then at least
we’d have some idea what we were voting for. There’s absolutely no point in
debating further many of the points in the blog post because we just don’t
know.
This is why, for me, it just comes down to the
constitutional question. No one can pretend that independence = radical
constitution = socialism and the end of capitalism in Scotland. But a
constitution can allow us to elect governments at all levels to make decisions
for us. Westminster, and Project Fear and their devomax alternatives, are not
offering me this.
And I just want to end with a comment on Project Fear. It
has been a woefully run campaign. Whenever they make an announcement, like the
one on the currency, they immediately have to back-track when it’s pointed out
to them the flaws in their argument, or when people in the campaign brief
against them. It strikes me they were very complacent and just thought “all we
have to do is frighten people to death and they’ll accept the status quo”. But
the yes campaign cannot help but be filled with positivity and nice, so that really
isn’t working, still. And No Thanks need to get their grassroots sorted. Back
in 2012 Yes and Better Together took it turns each Saturday morning to leaflet
the Foot of Leith Walk. Labour No Thanks were at the Foot of the Walk last
week, which is the first time I’d seen anyone pro-union there in a year. Yes
have been there every week, very enthusiastic, smiling, engaging people in
debate and thrusting leaflets into people’s hands. A Better Together leaflet
sent through the post by the UK Government with photos of terrified looking
families is not going to make me vote no. It just makes me think “fuck off
David Cameron you tit”. No Thanks/Better Together need that grassroots personal
touch to get a positive message out there and win hearts.
And I won’t go into the possibly
illegal spamming of academics email accounts by Academics Together/Blether
Together (see the Twitter thread attached to this tweet).
That’s one of the reasons I’m writing this.
In conclusion, at the moment I’m swithering to yes. Better
Together are offering THE FEAR and pretty much nothing else of substance that
makes me want to vote no. I’m not going to rush out and join Academics for Yes, but I have
considered this (the fact that Academics for Yes contains people of a variety
of ages and TWO WHOLE genders means they automatically beat Academics
Together). It might be that in the polling booth on 18 September I get cold
feet and vote no; it is a very big step. But right now it’s an exciting step I
want to see happen.